Lion populationsmay be declining in Africa but not as

Historical knowledge and recent surveys attest that lions are declining across parts of Africa (1, 2). We applaud Bauer et al. (3) for assembling available counts because they motivate better monitoring and conservation support. Their own data, however, rejects their claims that lions are “declining everywhere, except in four southern countries” and that lions increase only where “intensively managed.” First, there are some stable and increasing populations in all regions. Moreover, not weighting for population size strongly biases regional population projections. By treating all populations, small and large, equally, Bauer et al. (3) mislead on the overall trend of lion populations. Of 21 populations in southern Africa, only one (Okavango) shows a decline, but the increasing populations are mostly in small, fenced reserves that, combined, support few lions. Niassa is a large, increasing population but is considered a “special case.” Of nine West and Central African lion populations, the largest are stable (Bénoué, 200) or increasing (Pendjari, ∼100). The declining populations are the smallest, with starting populations of fewer than 70 lions. In East Africa, of 15 populations, four are increasing and four are stable. Only four populations show declines strong enough to halve in 20 y (λ < 0.965). Masai Mara and Katavi are the only large populations showing such strong declines. Second, Bauer et al. (3) misrepresent the data from these two sites: